Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.043607 0.049261 0.055541 0.063065 0.071874 0.081909 0.094274
2026-02-01 0.033609 0.040314 0.048336 0.058738 0.072015 0.088588 0.111151
2026-02-08 0.027963 0.035341 0.044765 0.057898 0.076066 0.100832 0.138084
2026-02-15 0.023702 0.031387 0.041804 0.057321 0.080500 0.114954 0.172312
2026-02-22 0.020596 0.028475 0.039763 0.057688 0.086558 0.133397 0.220128
2026-03-01 0.018035 0.025931 0.037835 0.057905 0.092666 0.154182 0.281303
2026-03-08 0.015580 0.023172 0.035140 0.056422 0.095808 0.171422 0.345310
2026-03-15 0.013129 0.020068 0.031409 0.052491 0.093755 0.178778 0.394035
2026-03-22 0.011774 0.018543 0.030057 0.052547 0.099477 0.204534 0.503507
2026-03-29 0.010796 0.017509 0.029389 0.053785 0.108169 0.241111 0.671764
2026-04-05 0.009809 0.016322 0.028260 0.053903 0.114637 0.275963 0.869819
2026-04-12 0.008921 0.015195 0.027068 0.053660 0.120360 0.312451 1.117710
2026-04-19 0.008009 0.013927 0.025449 0.052244 0.123096 0.343317 1.392708
2026-04-26 0.007128 0.012610 0.023542 0.049794 0.122448 0.364051 1.659970
2026-05-03 0.006586 0.011890 0.022772 0.049929 0.129394 0.416972 2.218505
2026-05-10 0.006112 0.011250 0.022079 0.050128 0.136828 0.478634 3.006060
2026-05-17 0.005740 0.010772 0.021674 0.051014 0.147060 0.562360 4.275341
2026-05-24 0.005393 0.010304 0.021221 0.051681 0.157067 0.656512 6.116474
2026-05-31 0.004989 0.009669 0.020285 0.050778 0.161149 0.726070 8.117562
2026-06-07 0.004504 0.008806 0.018692 0.047615 0.155369 0.735366 9.321614
2026-06-14 0.004252 0.008437 0.018262 0.047909 0.163961 0.846113 13.538278
2026-06-21 0.004072 0.008211 0.018158 0.049224 0.177801 1.015157 21.816124
2026-06-28 0.003859 0.007888 0.017760 0.049503 0.187344 1.170666 33.520694